9.23-9.27磷矿石、、、、热法磷酸及湿法净化磷酸行情周报
磷矿石、、、热法磷酸及湿法净化磷酸行情周报（9.23-9.27）
磷矿石：
磷矿价格近期暂无变化，，，矿山方面价格稳定，，出货为主。。。。下游产品磷酸一铵、、磷酸二铵对磷矿需求量占约6成，，，，磷矿对磷肥开工依赖度较高，，贸易商端情绪受下游磷肥价格和开工双双下行影响，，，心态略有不稳，，不排除局部价格下调可能。。。北方磷矿生产仍未恢复，，，供应量有限，，，新单成交稀少，，，企业以现有订单为主。。但三季度至四季度为中国化肥传统冬储保供生产季节，，，，磷肥开工大幅下滑的可能性较小。。。。四季度末为高山磷矿传统休采期，，，磷矿供应量有限。。。。。。。。近期重点关注磷肥行业开工和价格变化情况。。。。
黄磷：
本周黄磷生产企业开工率良好，，但下游客户需求持续清淡，，，部分厂家和贸易商为促进走货，，，，不断降价签单，，，，市场低价频现。。。。从供应看，，，，目前黄磷生产企业开工率仍然较高，，，随着黄磷生产企业前期的订单陆续发送，，，新单成交持续清淡，，，部分企业有资金和库存压力，，，出货回收货款，，，再加上贸易商不断抛货，，价格挺稳困难。。从需求方面看，，，部分下游客户提前为国庆假期备货，，，，到本周备货基本结束，，节前暂无采购计划，，观望节后市场情况；部分下游客户仍有采购需求，，但是考虑到黄磷价格跌势难抑，，，，这部分客户不断延迟采购计划，，新单成交稀少。。。。
下周将进入国庆假期，，预计黄磷市场交易基本暂停，，，，供需双方均观望节后市场情况，，整体交易冷清。。。 国庆假期结束后，，，黄磷下游客户有补货计划，，但是考虑黄磷生产企业也有出货需求，，，，预计节后将出现供需博弈的情况，，，价格可能以偏稳为主，，不排除有个别企业为存进走货小幅降价签单。。。。 利好： 1.下游企业经历了7天假期，，，原料库存消耗至低位，，，，有补货计划，，，预计节后短期内需求较为集中。。。 2.10月份进入平水期，，，云南电价有上调预期，，，黄磷成本有增加趋势，，，，支撑黄磷价格易涨难跌。。。。 利空： 1.黄磷生产企业开工良好，，，，假期库存积压，，，部分企业预计会有出货压力。。 2.节前价格跌势难抑，，，，预计节后下游客户仍以压价心态为主，，，高价成交困难。。。。 3.部分下游客户预计提前签订节后订单，，，，节后需求可能减少，，，，不利于价格商谈。。
热法磷酸：
本周热法磷酸市场开工稳定，，，，原料黄磷价格下滑，，，热法磷酸成本支撑减弱，，热法磷酸价格小幅下调。。。本周临近国庆，，，下游客户中秋节前备货较为充足，，国庆节前备货需求较低，，，，多延续刚需采购，，，，新单成交寥寥，，，，部分下游客户询单拿货情况尚可。。。。但整体来看，，，，下游市场行情不佳，，且前备货积极性不高，，市场交投氛围偏冷清。。。预计下周热法磷酸市场进入假期模式，，，，市场交投减少。。。。节后预计热法磷酸市场价格偏稳运行。。
湿法磷酸：
本周湿法净化磷酸价格平稳，，多数生产企业库存较低，，，且有较多待发订单支撑，，，以交付前期订单为主或稳价接单。。多数工厂订单基本排至十月中下旬。。。从供应方面来看，，，临近假期，，，下游备货基本进入尾声，，，终端用户采购情况一般。。。从需求方面来看，，部分客户基本备货结束，，，以消耗前期采购的库存为主；部分客户按需采购，，无积极囤货意愿；另外，，，，受热法磷酸价格下行影响，，，湿法净化磷酸与热法磷酸价格博弈激烈，，，，部分客户继续转向采购热法磷酸。。综合来看，，，，本周新能源市场对净化酸消耗稳定，，，提振净化酸价格持稳。。。。国际需求表现稳定，，，，湿法净化磷酸企业正常交付外贸订单。。预计下周湿法净化磷酸市场表现平静，，，价格维稳。。。
Weekly summary of Phosphoric acid, yellow phosphorus and phosphate rock(9.23-9.27):
Phosphate Rock:
There have been no recent changes in the price of phosphate rock, with stable prices in the mining sector and mainly focusing on shipments. Downstream products such as DAP MAP account for approximately 60% of the demand for phosphate rock. The dependence of phosphate rock on the operation of phosphorus fertilizers is relatively high. Traders were worry about the possibility of later prices may be adjusted downward due to the downward trends in both downstream phosphorus fertilizer prices and operation rate. Phosphate rock production in the north has still not recovered, with limited supply and few new transactions. Enterprises mainly rely on existing orders. However, from the third to the fourth quarter is the traditional winter storage and supply production season for Chinese fertilizers, so there is a low likelihood of a significant decline in the start of production for phosphorus fertilizers. The end of the fourth quarter is the traditional non-mining period for phosphate rock, with limited supply. In the near term, focus should be placed on the start of production and price changes in the phosphorus fertilizer industry.
Yellow phosphorus:
The summary of the situation in the yellow phosphorus market this week is that while production rates are good, downstream customer demand remains weak. In order to promote sales, some manufacturers and traders have continuously reduced prices and signed contracts, leading to frequent occurrences of low market prices. Supply-wise, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus manufacturers remains high, but new orders continue to be weak as early orders are gradually delivered. Some companies are facing pressure on capital and inventory, with the need to sell goods to recover payments. Additionally, traders are constantly selling their stockpiles, making it difficult to maintain a stable price. From the demand perspective, some downstream customers have completed their pre-National Day holiday stockpiling and have no purchase plans before the holiday. However, some other downstream customers still have purchasing needs but are delaying their purchase plans due to the difficult-to-stop downward trend in yellow phosphorus prices, resulting in a scarcity of new orders. Overall, the market for yellow phosphorus faces a situation of oversupply and volatile prices, and the market will need to wait for post-holiday demand to further clarify its direction.
As the upcoming National Day holiday approaches, the yellow phosphorus market is expected to experience a basic halt in trading activities. Both supply and demand sides are on the lookout for market conditions after the holiday, with an overall quiet trading atmosphere.
After the holiday, yellow phosphorus downstream customers have restocking plans, but considering the need for producers to sell their products, a supply-demand game is expected to emerge. Prices are likely to remain relatively stable, with the possibility of individual companies offering slight discounts to sign contracts for faster delivery to meet inventory needs.
Positive factors:
- Downstream enterprises have experienced a seven-day holiday, and their raw material inventories are low, leading to restocking plans. It is expected that demand will be relatively concentrated in the short term after the holiday.
- Entering the flat-water period in October, there is an expected increase in electricity prices in Yunnan, leading to an increase in yellow phosphorus costs, which will support a tendency for prices to rise rather than fall.
Negative factors:
- Yellow phosphorus manufacturers are operating well, with inventories built up during the holiday, and some companies are expected to face pressure to sell their products.
- The downward price trend before the holiday is difficult to contain, and it is expected that downstream customers will continue to have a mindset of pressing prices after the holiday, making it difficult to trade at higher prices.
- Some downstream customers are expected to pre-sign orders after the holiday, which may lead to a decrease in demand after the holiday, making it unfavorable for price negotiations.
Overall, the market for yellow phosphorus is expected to experience a period of adjustment and stabilization after the holiday, with both positive and negative factors influencing the direction of prices.
Thermal phosphoric acid:
This week, the thermal phosphoric acid market remained stable in operation rate. However, with the price of raw material yellow phosphorus declining, the cost support for thermal phosphoric acid weakened, resulting in a slight decrease in its prices. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream customers had sufficient stockpiling before the Mid-Autumn Festival, leading to lower pre-National Day restocking demand. Most purchases were based on immediate needs, with only a few new orders traded. Some downstream customers showed interest in inquiries and deliveries, but the overall downstream market sentiment was bleak, and the enthusiasm for pre-stockpiling was low. Market trading was relatively quiet. It is expected that next week, the thermal phosphoric acid market will enter a holiday mode with reduced market trading activity. After the holiday, the market price of thermal phosphoric acid is expected to remain stable.
Wet purified phosphoric acid:
This week, the price of wet-process purified phosphoric acid remained stable. Most manufacturers had low inventories, supported by a significant number of pending orders, mainly focusing on delivering existing orders or collecting orders at steady price. The lead time of many factories have been arranged until mid to late October. In terms of supply, as the holidays approach, downstream stockpiling activities have basically entered the final stage, and terminal users’ purchasing activity is average. From the demand perspective, some customers have completed their stockpiling and are primarily consuming previously purchased inventories, while others purchase according to their needs without a strong desire to stock up. Additionally, affected by the decreasing price of thermal phosphoric acid, there is intense competition between wet-process purified phosphoric acid and thermal phosphoric acid, with some customers shifting to purchasing thermal phosphoric acid. Overall, the new energy market demonstrates a stable demand for purified acid, which helps to maintain the stability of purified acid prices. International demand remains stable, and wet-process purified phosphoric acid enterprises are normally delivering foreign trade orders. It is expected that the market for wet-process purified phosphoric acid will remain calm and the price will be maintained stable in the upcoming week.
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